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Bangladesh’s carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels have risen by nearly 50% in the past decade, climbing from 77 million tonnes in 2015 to 115.9 million tonnes in 2025, according to a new international study published on Tuesday.
The findings come as global fossil fuel emissions are projected to fall by 0.4% in 2026, partly due to the rapid expansion of solar and wind power and partly because of an energy shock linked to the Iran conflict. However, researchers have warned that the projected decline does not signal a lasting change in global emissions trends.
The findings were published in the 2026 Global Carbon Budget, prepared by an international team of more than 140 scientists. The report provides an updated assessment of global carbon emissions, fossil fuel consumption and progress in tackling climate change.
According to the report, global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are expected to reach 38.2 billion tonnes in 2026, down 0.4% from the previous year.
However, total global CO2 emissions, including those caused by land-use changes such as deforestation, are projected to rise to 43.3 billion tonnes this year, up from 42.8 billion tonnes in 2025.
Researchers said global energy demand continues to grow, but solar and wind power, along with electric vehicles, are meeting around two-thirds of the additional demand.
Despite this progress, the expansion of clean energy is still not sufficient to ensure a sustained decline in fossil fuel emissions.
Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, director of the Global Carbon Budget Office at the University of Exeter and lead author of the study, said the projected fall in fossil fuel emissions was encouraging, but cautioned that geopolitical disruptions were partly responsible.
He said the decline could not be regarded as a sustainable solution to climate change, stressing that clean energy technologies needed to be deployed much faster to achieve long-term reductions in global emissions.
The report projects that oil-related emissions will fall by 1.9% in 2026, while emissions from natural gas are expected to decline by 0.3%. In contrast, coal-related emissions are forecast to rise by 0.6%.
Researchers attributed the expected fall in oil emissions partly to the energy crisis and market disruptions linked to the Iran conflict.
The growing use of solar and wind power is also helping prevent significant amounts of carbon emissions. The emissions avoided through these two sources rose from 280 million tonnes in 2010 to 4.1 billion tonnes in 2025 and are projected to reach 4.6 billion tonnes in 2026.
A separate study published alongside the report in Nature Climate Change estimates that additional solar and wind power, together with electric vehicles, could offset 64% to 79% of emissions associated with new energy demand by the end of 2028.
Country-level projections show that China, which accounts for 32% of global fossil fuel emissions, is expected to record a 0.9% decline in 2026. The country is also the world's leading deployer of clean energy technologies.
Emissions in the United States and the European Union are projected to fall by 1.3% and 1.5%, respectively.
India, however, is expected to see its emissions rise by 4.4%, exceeding its average annual growth rate of 3.5% over the past decade.
The report also warns that the global carbon budget available to limit temperature rises to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels is rapidly shrinking.
The remaining carbon budget is estimated at just 150 billion tonnes, equivalent to less than four years of emissions at current rates.
Meanwhile, emissions from land-use changes, including deforestation, are projected to reach 5.1 billion tonnes in 2026. Increased peat fires and forest degradation in Southeast Asia are among the main contributors.
Atmospheric CO2 concentrations are also expected to reach 427.7 parts per million (ppm) this year, 54% above pre-industrial levels.
Researchers said the expansion of clean energy was helping several countries cut emissions while maintaining economic growth. However, they stressed that solar and wind power, batteries and electric vehicles must be deployed much faster to achieve a lasting peak and subsequent decline in global emissions.
https://thedailyexpress.news/news/business/1f1dcfdc-dc0f-6e90-8623-1cb86f36cce7